Federal Election May 18, 2019!

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storm84
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by storm84 » 18 May 2019, 16:23

I booked a nice restaurant tonight so I could get away from the election for a couple of hours.
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Sathias
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Sathias » 19 May 2019, 00:19

Gutted. I really didn't see this coming. My only regret is that I am not like these s44 idiots that get kicked out of parliament on dual-citizenship grounds.
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Mythor
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Mythor » 19 May 2019, 00:23

Insane result on every level.

Bill Shorten's announced he'll be stepping down as leader, which is about all that makes sense tonight.
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n1cholas
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by n1cholas » 19 May 2019, 11:02

Sathias wrote:
19 May 2019, 00:19
Gutted. I really didn't see this coming.
With the likely senate composition the LNP will need 5 of 6 crossbenchers to back their legislation assuming Labor and the Greens oppose said legislation which means very little contention legislation will pass.

My guess is that this will be a do little to nothing term of federal parliament, the economy will go into recession and house prices will continue to fall which ScoMo will somehow try to spin it as Labor's fault, the electorate will wise up and throw him and his party out at the next election.

For Labor it gives them a chance to get rid of an unpopular leader (Shorten) and hopefully install someone who is less awkward with less baggage.

I expect future campaigns from both major parties to be extremely negative given how successful the LNP's campaign was and amounted to nothing more then a massive scare campaign.

The LNP will live to regret trying to label all revenue raising measures as new taxes when the aforementioned recession hits, the budget takes a hit and the deficit blows out they will have no recourse but to cut spending and this will ensure they get tossed out.

I think it'a best to look on the bright side as when a recession does hit it will be fully owned by the LNP and given how poorly they've handled economic crisis in the past (Malcolm Fraiser) I don't expect they'll do any better in future.

Whoever wins the next federal election is going to have an enormous task involving some serious reform and if they don't I expect low growth and recession-like conditions to become the new norm as we won't be taking in as many migrants to give the illusion of growth.
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Sathias
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Sathias » 19 May 2019, 11:10

n1cholas wrote:
19 May 2019, 11:02
Sathias wrote:
19 May 2019, 00:19
Gutted. I really didn't see this coming.
With the likely senate composition the LNP will need 5 of 6 crossbenchers to back their legislation assuming Labor and the Greens oppose said legislation which means very little contention legislation will pass.

My guess is that this will be a do little to nothing term of federal parliament, the economy will go into recession and house prices will continue to fall which ScoMo will somehow try to spin it as Labor's fault, the electorate will wise up and throw him and his party out at the next election.

For Labor it gives them a chance to get rid of an unpopular leader (Shorten) and hopefully install someone who is less awkward with less baggage.

I expect future campaigns from both major parties to be extremely negative given how successful the LNP's campaign was and amounted to nothing more then a massive scare campaign.

The LNP will live to regret trying to label all revenue raising measures as new taxes when the aforementioned recession hits, the budget takes a hit and the deficit blows out they will have no recourse but to cut spending and this will ensure they get tossed out.

I think it'a best to look on the bright side as when a recession does hit it will be fully owned by the LNP and given how poorly they've handled economic crisis in the past (Malcolm Fraiser) I don't expect they'll do any better in future.

Whoever wins the next federal election is going to have an enormous task involving some serious reform and if they don't I expect low growth and recession-like conditions to become the new norm as we won't be taking in as many migrants to give the illusion of growth.
Pretty good analysis there I reckon, n1cholas. Although assuming that ON and Bernardi vote with the coalition, they only need 1 or 2 of the other cross benchers on current results.
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storm84
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by storm84 » 19 May 2019, 11:30

One of the things that baffled me about the campaign against Labor on tax was that Labor was proposing to cut taxes, and they would have been more substantial cuts for more people. Yet instead of campaigning on that, it let the LNP just relentlessly claim Labor was going to tax us out of existence, and those tax loopholes that give away corporate tax and disproportionately go to higher income earners will remain. Even the claim that the LNP will pay off Labor's debt when they have been power for the last six years and more than half the debt is theirs, there was absolutely no counter to it. Same goes for the nonsense around electricity prices, where Labor just let attacks on climate change policy be seen as an out-of-tough expense on the cost of living (when electricity prices are a small portion of our expenditure relatively speaking). Labor really has no-one but themselves to blame for losing.

I'm in two minds whether it's a good election to lose, given the economic slowdown and the low wage growth, and especially given the oneupmanship in the fights over tarifs and economic subsidies going on globally. It'll be tricky to navigate the economy with global factors well beyond the control of the government shaping our economic prosperity.
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by brimlad » 25 May 2019, 08:12

still plenty of thought to be had around such a crushing defeat for labor.
seems negativity will be the way of politics with this current crop of politicians, that road is well paved now. Labor did overreach with policy imo, as did the democrats, and forgot to nurture their base. Adani and franking credits were probably the two big mistakes, franking credits not only affects retires but also their heirs who hope to pay off the massive mortgage with the inheritance.
Qld, WA and Tassy aren't ready for a battle of ideas, it's all about the hip pocket;

scmo albo, three years of o wow :(

and I'm not sure about a recession and falling house prices, govt is already putting on the thumb screws to relax lending requirements and I'd imagine the response to the banking RC will be weak and feeble, and I guess we won't see any tax cuts to the low end of town for another year.
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Sathias
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Sathias » 25 May 2019, 08:21

Franking credits (when paying no tax) are such a rort.... the fact that some "self-funded" retirees get more money from the government than pensioners is a national disgrace. Meanwhile these people will sit on their boats or in their tax-free million dollar mansions and tut tut how "dole bludgers" are given a pittance. Australia has become so conservative and greedy.

I can see this election really harming the country. If Labor got in, it would be the first government in ages that got in on an actual policy agenda, and wouldn't owe anything to Clive, Rupert or Pauline. Now we have a shambles of a Liberal government returned, with Clive owed BIG favours (you wait and see what coal concessions are approved AFTER Adani). And because the government has been returned on basically no policy agenda, they can substitute in practically anything they want.
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brimlad
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by brimlad » 25 May 2019, 09:46

I agree Sathias franking credits are a massive rort and need to be wound down but it's something that an incumbent government needs to tackle using all the resources of government to argue the case, it was just a big red X for the top end of town to attack labor on.
Clive's tactic to support the LNP by attacking Bill so he could get his coal leases going worked a treat and now QLD labor are running scared which is bad news for the environment.
and like the democrats this was an election that labor should not have lost and the country will pay dearly for that loss.
and now we have Boris champing at the bit; western liberal democracy is struggling atm and it needs all our support to bring into the light once more !
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Sathias
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Sathias » 25 May 2019, 09:52

Yeah I agree Brim... it's the sort of thing you need to handle in your second term or in a mid term budget. I also think rather than getting rid of them totally that maybe a $5k-$10k cap would have curbed them for the superrich tax rorting retirees while minimising impact on retirees living off $50-60k per annum.
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Otto-matic Reiffel
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Otto-matic Reiffel » 25 May 2019, 16:53

Personally I think truth in election advertising really needs to be looked at. There were a bunch of ads around that were 100% bullshit but they were legal because somebody authorised them.
Given the current 2 parties it's not likely to happen but it would be nice.
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storm84
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by storm84 » 25 May 2019, 17:23

Yeah. That Liberal ad in Chinese that looked like it's AEC had "authorised by the Liberal party" is definitely not in the spirit of democracy even if it's technically legal.
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by brimlad » 26 May 2019, 08:34

couple of tweets from swany seem to hit the mark but until I see the make up of the senate it will be difficult to judge how big a disaster labor created
and good to know Campbell Newman is still alive be interesting to see if he attempts a political comeback for the QLD election later this year, lol
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by brimlad » 14 Jun 2019, 09:38

who says politics can't be fun ?
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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by brimlad » 08 Jul 2019, 16:22

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Re: Federal Election May 18, 2019!

Post by Nekosan » 08 Jul 2019, 17:56

Just LOL @ "How are we the shit version of NZ? and a photo of Ardern. The QLD one is also pretty on point.
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